Session 12: It's All Said and Done, It's Real and, It's Been Fun

Musings...

As you can tell from the session title, this will be the last post from The TWC Muse. It's been quite a roller coaster ride - ups and downs, corkscrews, back-flips and high-velocity, no-nonsense workloads but all in all, this has been one of the courses where things are taught but not memorized, but rather, these things and insights are internalized - to be kept safely in the back of the mind and not to be forgotten. I took most of the lessons and discussions as words of conventional wisdom mixed with general knowledge and a whole load of insight/foresight for the future. In its entirety, I definitely enjoyed this course as it was not fully academic in the typical Singaporean 'study-hard-get-good-grades' sense but it was challenging for the mind. Not to say that typical academic courses never challenged the mind but they do so in a more painful, agonizing way in which students painstakingly ingest copious amounts of heavy text and are forced to regurgitate these lumps of information onto tests, examinations and papers. To me, this conventional method of academia is treated much like a chore to be forgotten once the module is over. Fortunately, T.W.C has not been like this for me.

Each session was insightful and full of fruitful discussions where I was able to learn from Prof as much as I was able to learn from my peers through discussions of varying, uninhibited viewpoints. As the class was rather small, we were able to get acquainted with each other without much trouble, easing up any tensions or ice that crystallized our thoughts and words - this was a very important step in maintaining an environment where discussions and opinions are encouraged and I feel that this was the start of what made this course fun. As everyone was able to voice their opinions on matters without doubt or hesitation, it became much like a forum where students posit their ideas and everyone brought a little bit of what they had to the table. Although sometimes what we brought to the table was rather off-topic or not appetizing, Prof continued to make sure that the discussions would end in a fruitful manner or he would personally direct them. This form of class participation, I felt, was the truest and most effective as people could really learn from each other instead of 'fruitcakes' just simply spouting off nonsense to earn class participation points. Excuse my french.

Although I thoroughly enjoyed the sessions and the course in general, I found that at times, the course workload was abit heavy. With weekly blog entries and readings that were sometimes long enough to induce comas, coupled with an individual presentation component, an individual topical review paper and also a group web-based report, I was sometimes overwhelmed. However, it must be said that Prof has been rather lenient with the deadlines for a lot of these assignments, giving us some time to breathe in the process and balancing out the bulky workload. This is just my honest opinion of the course.

A key take-away I took away from this course (yes, pun intended) was the insight to be able to grow and evolve with technology. As mentioned in the previous Musing, I was always just a leaf in the wind with technology as I felt I could not do anything to influence or change it. However, with the insight from this course, I found that it is important to want to understand technology and see how it has transformed and will transform life in the past, present and future. Because with this insight, you can be more in touch with everything around you. Sounds abit philosophical but let me explain. As technology has permeated almost every aspect of our lives, we have to do more than just embrace it, we should take a step forward and understand it as well. By understanding technology, we can see how and why alot of things in everyday life are created. More than knowing the purpose of technology's existence, we can understand the future of what technology can and will bring to our lives. This would definitely be the greatest take-away from T.W.C that I can apply for myself in the here and now, and most definitely in the future.


Personal rating for this session: 9.8989/10


So Long Dear Muse,
James G14

Session 11: Wise Men Say..

Musings...

This session was mostly a reflective one for me. Reflective on this course and on what we define as wisdom. For the course, I believe that it has opened up many closed doors and boundaries within my mind, beyond academia, that most university courses wouldn't. Hopefully, the wisdom gained from courses in the future would be as applicable and as conventional.

In general, this course has corrected my beliefs and vision of what technology is. I've always had this view that technology was essentially just a force - like the wind or the tides, coming and going as it pleases. This detached view was developed mostly from the fact that in life so far, I was never able to influence or change the technology around me. And as a result, I solidified the belief that whatever happens with technology, I would not or cannot be part of the change - I would simply just be a user of technology, never an innovator. I do embrace technology in any and all forms and I believe that it will be the pathway for the future in almost every aspect but prior to the discussions and engagements in the sessions, I've always kept a closed view of technology much like the proverbial 'Frog in the Well'. But now, after experiencing 11 sessions of T.W.C., it has become clear that I need to find the wisdom and the meaning behind technology and see the relationships that it brings to our world. Although I've never really envisioned myself as being a 'technopreneur' or an inventor, having that mindset never hurt anyone. In fact, I believe that having that desire to gain insight on the way things work and how inventions have changed life is very important because when you know why and how things happen, you can preempt the future and adapt to changes, not just technological, better. Thus, as part of a personal reflection, I believed this course has helped me achieve just that - to spark the hunger to want to know how and why things are so instead of just being a drifter in this technological world.

Wisdom is a funny word. Everyone has varying definitions of what wisdom encompasses but the general idea is that you know what's going on or you have that special insight beyond just knowledge. For me, wisdom is in going beyond just knowledge and being able to absorb that knowledge. Martin H Fischer's quote that "Knowledge is a process of piling up facts; wisdom lies in their simplification." is very true but I believe that simplifying knowledge is not enough to be deemed as wisdom. Simplifying knowledge would mean that the individual is able to absorb and regurgitate knowledge into a more conventional and understandable form for most people - which in essence, means that that individual knows exactly what he's talking about. But that wasn't enough for me. I needed an added dimension to that relationship - experience. Wisdom, I believe, lies in the simplification and, the addition and application of this simplified knowledge into experience. By being able to apply simplified knowledge to past experience and understanding how and why certain events happened, then you would gain the insight that is not conventional - you would become wise. This edge of unconventionality is what defines a wise person in my mind. And someone who is able recognize how knowledge can be simplified and applied is all the more wiser than someone who simply knows what knowledge is.

That's just my two cents on what wisdom is. And I don't believe that wisdom comes with age but rather I comes with the maturity of being able to self-analyse and apply that simplified knowledge into the experiences you've had. Maturity is therefore also a pre-requisite for wisdom, not age. This conventional quote - "The only true wisdom is in you knowing you know nothing." is an example of why wisdom requires maturity. Because without maturity, no one would be able to say that they know nothing (aside from the truly ignorant or stupid people). In many senses, it becomes a requisite - that one needs to be mature in order for them to be wise and thus, this is how the layperson view that old people are wise came to be. And one of the quotes or rather, the first poem examined in this class, by Alfred North Whitehead was:

                        "Wisdom alone is ambition's true aim,
                         Wisdom is the source of virtue and of fame;
                         Obtained with labour, for mankind employed,
                         And then, when you most share it, best enjoyed."

As a student of the arts, I found this to be rather intriguing as it seemed to me as a very practical application of what wisdom is and how it is applied in life. The first line speaks of the fact that if you want to be ambitious, then you only want to be wise - to be the know-it-all of what you do, to be a great provider of knowledge and insight which I believe is rather accurate if you are ambitious. The second line talks about wisdom as being the "source of virtue and of fame" - extrapolating from the first line and going to show that a wise man will indeed be a successful man. The third line goes into the practical application of wisdom on everyday life: obtained with labour (endless toiling and hard work) for "mankind employed" which would most probably equate to the masses or people around the world. This third line also goes into the fact that wisdom is gained through hard work and it is created for educating or helping the masses (mankind employed) as it was written during the period of the industrial age, there are many connotations of employment and labour that existed during that time as everyone had to work and they had to be working hard. The fourth line, which is my favourite, says boldly that once wisdom is obtained, it is "best enjoyed" when shared with others. This means, essentially, that a person who is able to spread his wisdom and his wise ways will live a more fulfilling existence. This is true when I think of the instances in which I give advice or conventional 'wisdom' to others and knowing that it helps them in some way, I feel better and more fulfilled.



Personal rating for this session: 9.7179/10


Off to further musings,
James G14

Session 10: Futurama

Musings...

Throughout the course of these sessions, the topic of the Future is always present, somewhere backstage and often making short cameos but its presence was always felt. This time, however, the Future is in the spotlight and everyone's watching - hence, the session's quirky name taken from the cartoon. As usual, we started off with a quote, not from a dead scientific or technological genius but from an English statesman - Sir Winston Churchill. Churchill advised that “The empires of the future are the empires of the mind. ” What he meant by it, in the context of T.W.C, was probably that the future is all created by our minds. However, as a history student, I realized that what Churchill could have also meant was in the political sphere because he used the words 'empire'. From what I interpret from him saying this is that the future empires or spheres of governance are going to be largely ideological. Why do I believe this may be so even though I may not know the full context in which this quote was taken is because we are already moving into a tribal communities (which will be discussed later) and ideologies will be one of the dividing and unifying forces of such communities. Either way, it's a brilliant quote and a good way to work the mind at the start of the session.

The first interesting video presented in the session was on Future, Technology and the Next 50 years Megatrends. It was a quick summary of the unending potential of technology in the future and it was amazing to see how quickly such developments have been continuing and what they could bring to the table in terms of improving life in the future. Although it was all fabulous, great and merry. A major concern that was brought up during discussion was - where do we focus on? Due to the vast nature of wanting to improve every single aspect of our lives, it becomes utterly impossible to hit every single base due to limited resources and funding. Thus, I felt that it was an important avenue for discussion in terms of where the initial focus points should be in the next 10, 20, 30 years and so on - taking it one decade at a time. As much as I would love to see teleportation technology in my lifetime, what needs to be done is risk assessment, innovation forecasting, cost-benefit analysis and whether this technology will continue to be secure in the future. In addition, another major constraint to creating focal points for technology is that everyone's needs are going to be different. In first-world countries, people could be wanting augmented reality technologies for everything they can get their hands (or eyes) on within the next 10 years. However, there are many parts of the world that would be thankful if they are able to survive 10 more years down the road of famine, poverty and disease. Once again, as I often love to do, let's throw it to the governing bodies to handle such goal setting. World organizations and the United Nations should definitely think of and focus on technologies that aid in the betterment of third-world countries and narrowing the poverty disparity. From there, individual countries can also focus on the needs of their people as it would not be fair to for the world to wait for everyone to get on the same level before advancing in terms of technology, although this may sound rather selfish.

The next video and interesting point was the acronym that made up the word Future. 

F = Fast, meaning the future is going to be ever-changing at a rapid pace which has much truth to it especially when we look back at the trends that have sparked and how they've developed. Everything is now happening at such a rapid rate that we have to almost struggle to keep up with technology and the future.

U = Urban, as we are now modernizing and building infrastructures to house the growing world populations, it is only thinkable that we move to more urbanized environments where a greater number of people can enjoy the benefits of a civilized, well-governed (in developed cities) society.

T = Tribal, aforementioned, the future will be a place of tribes. Tribes from all different forms and backings. Right now, the tribes that exist are entities like Facebook, Twitter and many other social media avenues that people enter and congregate in. I believe that the future will hold much potential for these tribes to influence the masses as well as in terms of connecting the world in ideologies, news, communication and networking.

U = Universal, as we know it, it means to be all-encompassing and the depth of it is global. However, we can extrapolate this idea beyond just our planet and encompass the entire universe as we know it. Man going beyond the frontier of what we know as space and exploring other planets for resources, places to live or simply, to further science. Either way, we are not limited by this planet and change will inevitably reach to other parts of our universe. That's right, cue the Star Wars Imperial March music.

R = Radical, because we know that with the accelerated rate of change we are experiencing now, technology and the future will continue to exponentially revolutionize what we know. 10 years ago, things like the iPhone were thought to be mythical. But now, every one and their baby cousin has an iPhone and this is just going to get crazier and more radical. Especially with the speed of how this is all changing around us. 

E = Ethical, with all these crazy changes scheduled for the future, we need to keep in mind what it is to be a responsible human being. We need to be ethical whether it in the field of business, education, law, innovation and every thing else that Man loves to dabble in. If we let our ethics and morals slip, then we will continue to slide lower and lower into losing our humanity and a future ruled by 'animals' is not one we'd like to see any time soon. No, I don't foresee the Rise of the Planet of the Apes occurring anytime soon.

Moving into a deep discussion, the topic of envisioning the future arose. Prof brought up the topic by telling us that when we think of the future, we should not be looking behind and thinking of the past but rather, looking forward and planning ahead. Much like Alan Kay's quote - "The best way to predict the future is to invent it." We need to consider the past - yes, most definitely, but do not restrict what you have for the future based on what has happened in the past because the future is ever-changing and it is going to be different from the past. In addition, Prof explained about the mentality to have when envisioning the future - not to be straight-jacketed into being limited by the constraints in your mind and to turn stumbling blocks into stepping stones by reverse-analyzing the drawbacks and avoiding such negative aspects in order to reach the goal in mind. He proposed to have people think imaginatively and creatively without boundaries before settling on a vision they can agree on, from there they tweak the vision to suit the current state of things. What most of us are doing now is the opposite, at least for me, we like to think of what is doable and what is down to earth instead of letting our mind run wild first and then slowly calming it down. By subconsciously limiting our mind, we are actually limiting ourselves and not thinking out of the box that we have created for ourselves. Therefore, I believe that this is definitely a key take-away point from this course and something we can use in our everyday lives in almost any situation.

Personal rating for this session: 9.8282/10


Off to further musings,
James G14

Session 9: Limited by Humanity

Musings...

This session was one of the more profound sessions over these several weeks. It was profound to me because I felt it challenged me not just as a lowly academic, but also as a human being. It challenged me to see beyond the here and the now, beyond the reality that veils our eyes. Yes, I'm going there - to dream. Well, at least the first quotes of this session did that for me. The first quote by George Bernard Shaw did just that - “You see things; and you say, 'Why?' But I dream things that never were; and I say, 'Why not?"  This, to me, was the start of the mentally challenging aspects of this course. Usually, I would simply understand it and just keep it at the back of my mind to be kept-in-view. But these first quotes ushered me to challenge the norm and not be satisfied with this reality. If one were to be contented and satisfied with everything around himself/herself and accept the status quo, then there would be no need for change - no need for improvement or innovation or development or transformation. This would mean the inevitable stagnation of our race and a possible step back into the dark ages. Without thought and the ability to generate thought we are nothing more than a large collection of species that dominate this planet (or so we think). But if we are able to become more than just a species, more than just organisms roaming the earth and if we are able to conceive our innovations and thoughts into reality then we become something great. Shaw's quote challenged me to be the person who looks forward and says "Why Not?". But such is easier said then done, with a limitless imagination and no ability to implement such vision, we become wanderers and 'wonderers' - never being able to see the fruition of our vision but forever dreaming. This is all very philosophical but it encompasses the thought processes in my head so bear with me. The next quote by Einstein - “Imagination is more important than knowledge. For knowledge is limited to all we now know and understand, while imagination embraces the entire world, and all there ever will be to know and understand.” was also very profound to me. Although I realize the reality that I am a mere student and my dreams of grandeur and innovation are not as bright until I get 'deeper pockets', I still value this piece of knowledge from Einstein because he questions what we know of knowledge. Although our knowledge of knowledge at this stage in our lives, I believe, is still infant, it is still true that whatever knowledge we create is limited to the things we understand and know to be true. However, imagination on the other hand is only limited by everything we do not know - because we do not know the very limits of the human mind to begin with. Thus, in many ways, imagination is very much more important than knowledge. A great man of imagination and of science, Nikola Tesla, is a testament to that.

Many had regarded this genius as a 'madman' because of his unorthodox beliefs in science and his quirky habits. Upon further research, I discovered that Tesla and Samuel Clemens, better known as Mark Twain, were good friends. It seems that great minds think alike. Mark Twain was regarded as a literary genius and Tesla a madman. Doesn't add up. Either way, evidence that his mad scientist antics were indeed a work of genius would be in the fact that today, NASA is trying to develop the very technology he had envisioned about a century ago. Tesla's idea was to be able to beam electricity from a distance to power objects or transmit signals back in the early 20th century. It's ridiculous how ridiculous ridiculous people can be. Although Tesla was not able to make some of his great visions true, one thing is certain - he was a person who embraced imagination. And the world definitely needs more of these 'mad' people.

Taking a step away from science and moving on to the application of vision is the next interesting topic of entrepreneurship. The heart of entrepreneurship is in being able to trail-blaze and be the forerunner in a business. This requires a bit of luck, the right management, the know-how, an innovative vision and capital. Well, one of the things Prof highlighted in class was the idea that trail-blazers should capitalize on market-driven opportunities to begin with. By analyzing trends and having good foresight and execution, market-driven opportunities would be the starting point for most entrepreneurs. This is mainly due to the lessened capital requirement. As your steamrolling baby grows, an entrepreneur can choose to capitalize on technology-driven opportunities, to stay ahead on the technological curve. This would work just as well if not better than market-driven opportunities because in today's increasingly affluent societies, everyone wants a piece of the tech-pie - the newest, coolest, most hi-tech gadgets. Thus, as an entrepreneur with the capital, being able to invest in technology-driven opportunities would also be an avenue for profit. As an aspiring entrepreneur and someone who has gotten my toes wet in such endeavors, I feel that this would be of great importance in the future (assuming I get to the point where I have deep pockets or even any pockets left, for that matter). All this talk of entrepreneurism leads me to the next interesting snippet in this session.

The confluence of the four 'Smarts' was something I understood through experience and something that would be handy for my future endeavors. See? You learn something new everyday. The first Smart was Smart people which meant having the right mix of people to envision, create and manage. This, I felt, was the most important of the Smarts as it is one of the greatest assets in business and it practically governs the next Smart on the list. And my favourite quote from Einstein basically sums up the importance of Smart people - "Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." The next Smart was Smart ideas which equates to having the right visions and ideas to create something that is innovative and unique. Followed by Smart money, which is knowing how and when to invest and having the right funding to support the business. The last Smart was Smart alliances and partnerships which was a crucial thing especially when you need to have partners in a larger project or an alliance with other companies to create a conglomerate of sorts - either way, it pays to be able to find the right people to work with.

Another interesting futuristic prospect was that of the field of development in artificial intelligence. Most people believe that machines can only be, even if the technology is present, heartless computers that crunch numbers for analysis and make decisions through endless algorithms. I don't believe so. This is because the human emotional repertoire isn't as complex as we think it is. We already have a set of socially accepted responses to emotional stimuli with minimal variation among people and even less when just looking at an individual. Thus, if a machine were to be able to be programmed to react and express emotion the same way people can, doesn't that make it capable of having emotion? Now let's not go too far into the transhuman and mechanization aspect of things but simply think of the possibility of this occurring. We currently behave in certain patterns depending on internal and external stimuli which can all be programmed into the machine and if such reactions can be predicted to a large extent then, we can safely create a generic human being through the behavioral analysis of us humans. Thus, I feel that creating emotion in machine is not that difficult and it may not be that different from us in the first place.

With regard to the intelligence aspect of artificial intelligence, I feel that machines can barely be limited by the fact that they currently may not have the cognitive ability to imagine - the generation of purely creative thoughts. What a machine would probably be able to do is generate ideas from a coded matrix which extends beyond the regular solutions, and by incorporating such extrapolations and calculating the feasibility of this new generation, it can determine whether this would be considered a creative thought or not. By extrapolating from a large, seemingly endless programmed database of stimuli and human experience, the machine can actually come up with something original and something unique. This is already more than I can say for myself as I do not have the ability to store all my past experiences, memories and feelings of certain incidents and extrapolating solutions from the variable outcomes of these incidents to create ideas and new solutions, but computers can store such information with their virtual memory hard-drives and utilize it in as many ways as the human mind can program, furthermore, they are able to take pieces of information from all these programmed human experiences and incidents, and analyze this critically on a level that the average person cannot. This is how, I believe, that machines can surpass us in the future. But when we finally create Smart machines, will we still need humans?


Personal rating for this session: 9.777/10


Off to further musings,
James G14

Session 8: E is for Energy

Musings...

This week's session focused on the dilemma of energy. Energy, as we know it today, is an unsustainable resource because much of the world's energy is derived from the burning of fossil fuels. And as we all know, fossil fuels are a very limited resource on this tiny earth. Thus, this sparked the first issue that hit me like a brick wall. The idea of energy security - will we have enough energy for the future? And what are we doing to diversify our energy sources? These were issues that seem to be dire to me as the impacts will occur during our lifetimes and it is something we need to address within a strained time window. As we all know, the current energy resource, fossil fuels, create heavy pollution which is steadily wearing out ozone layer thin. And this is narrowing the window of time we have to solve these problems. Global warming, as its name entails, is a global threat meaning no one can escape the effects of such a devastation were it to perpetuate. But, I'm sidetracking. The issue is that we need to find a sustainable, renewable energy source that is environmentally and ozone-friendly and we need to find it now.

Moving from the ultimate issue of this week's session, Prof discussed with the class about the sources of energy that are present today. Currently, we are largely utilizing the sources of energy from below the ground. Sources like coal, lignite, crude oil, geo-thermal energy, natural gases and uranium. Unfortunately for the human race, these underground sources either produce heavy amounts of pollution when burned for energy or they are simply radioactively dangerous. Uranium, which is a naturally-occurring radioactive substance produces a good amount of usable energy, but we have to deal with the radioactivity involved - much like nuclear energy today. The recent Fukushima incident has left everyone fearing such technology as the health risks if such incidents were to happen again would spell a second Chernobyl. The other sources, although less health-risky, have adverse effects on the environment. Sources like coal and crude oil have to be burned to produce heat energy, and in the combustion processes they release greenhouse gases like CO2 and thus, are seen as an unsustainable source in addition to the fact that these underground sources are slowly but surely running dry.

On the other hand, the sources of energy that can be harnessed above ground are largely renewable and green. Green in the sense that they do not produce harmful gases or deplete the ozone or contribute to the greenhouse effect. Furthermore, such sources have a high propensity to be renewable, or ever-lasting as long as the solar system does not decide to change rapidly in the near future. As raised by Prof, these sources are based on the sun's energy and the overall planetary position of the earth. The most abundant source, which will be highlighted in an extremely interesting fact later on, is solar energy which comes directly from the sun. Hydro energy which is harnessed from the movement of water or the tides in relation to the gravitational forces of the earth and the moon. Wind energy which is a byproduct of thermal forces and heat from the sun. Biomass energy which is derived from the decomposition or the breaking-down of biomass, which is any material that is present in nature, in order to use as fuel. All the sources of energy above the ground are largely sustainable, renewable and green. But why hasn't the world started shifting to these sources full-time? What are the obstacles that are stopping us?

I believe the hindering forces of utilizing such sources of energy are far and many. However, the outcome of not utilizing such energy and remaining dependent on our current sources would ultimately be dooming. Hindrances like increased costs are a huge factor for why the world is not completely using green energy right now. Increased costs are inevitable when new apparatus and equipment have to be installed. Not everyone has the capital to engage in such investments especially the layperson. Thus, responsibility falls on the government to encourage such investment by providing subsidies and financial incentives to suppliers and consumers alike in order to better facilitate the transition to green energy. As discussed in class, taxation on fossil fuel-based energy can discourage companies and consumers in continuing the oil-driven suicide and to help the environment by going green when alternative, green energy is made readily available. Although the transition to green energy may not be smooth, it is imperative that this initiative is a global effort as no single country can turn the tide of global warming on her own. Thus, I believe that the government support in such initiatives is a very important factor to the success of this transition and companies need to be able to focus on such moves knowing that sacrifices may have to be made.

The most interesting fact that has struck me in T.W.C. so far would have to be this one. Upon calculating the EJ of energy taken from the sun, it is predicted that an hour of absorbing solar energy (assuming it is done globally) can supply a year's worth of energy to the entire world. This to me was completely mind boggling. After factoring in the lack of infrastructure in less developed parts of the world, it is still possible to attain a year's worth of energy within a 24-hour earth rotation cycle if most of the world installs solar panels - all hypothetical. This would be amazing in terms of the future of energy. If the human race were able to utilize one single day to harness enough energy to supply the world's electrical systems for a year then we would be set on so many levels. Furthermore, if such energy can be transferred to power other systems like cars, planes etc. then we would no longer be dependent on fossil fuels and we would be living a green, sustainable energy cycle. This is assuming that in the future, the global solar panels will provide energy freely throughout the globe and there would be no monopolies and no selfishness between countries and no malicious agendas (this is a HUGE assumption). Hopefully, the world can unite under the green energy umbrella and come up with this global initiative for the betterment of future generations.

Another interesting initiative was brought up during one of our classmate's presentation. Joe's presentation was about the smart grid technology that was implemented on Jeju Island, South Korea. To me, it was a huge step in the right direction for mankind. This technology was the future of utilizing sustainable energy. From solar panels to wind-harnessing devices, much of the houses within the smart grid were powered by such energy, reducing the monthly energy costs of households in the area greatly. This was a great initiative as it was supported by the Korean government coupled with the great innovations of companies that sought to advance green technology. In addition, the man who was interviewed was an elderly chap, showing that this technology was nothing extreme, neither was it too complicated for the average person. Although this technology has not been fully implemented on that large a scale, it was a great start and should be viewed as an exemplar for countries who are whining about costs and setbacks. For once, there might be a ray for hope for a sustainable future. Just a ray.

Personal rating for this session: 9.4567/10


Off to further musings,
James G14

Individual Topical Review Draft

Executive Summary

Among the many operational models of the modern Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), the Predator-class UAVs, by General Atomics, were chosen as the topic of this paper because of their significance and popularity as being one of the prime UAVs of the modern age. The essence of this paper will focus on the three developed models of the Predator UAVs in chronological order – namely, the MQ-1 Predator, MQ-9 Reaper and the Avenger. These models were chosen as they were identified as the plateaus in which unmanned aerial technology have peaked. Furthermore, General Atomics is known to be the major player in the field of UAVs for the United States Air Force which is currently one of the biggest users of UAVs around the world. This topical review paper will also seek to explore the innovation of the Predator-class UAVs through the history of UAVs on the battlefield since the days of World War I, where UAVs were used as experimental drones till the late 20^th century where UAVs have become an integral part of warfare and reconnaissance. The paper will continue to explore the present day situation where Predator-class UAVs are used all over the globe for armed reconnaissance as well as tactical strike missions and how they have come to revolutionize warfare. In addition, a projection of where these UAVs will take warfare and reconnaissance in the future will be provided – ideas and thoughts of how this technology can be further developed to maximize the growing potential and also the potential of unmanned and artificial intelligence technologies in areas on and off the battlefield.

Introduction

The Predator-class UAVs began with the development of the General Atomics MQ-1 Predator, first developed and tested in 1994 and subsequently proven in missions over Bosnia, Kosovo, Iraq, Afghanistan and many other war-torn nations ever since its first flight. The MQ-1 was mainly used by the United States Air Force in these operations but its subsequent successors have managed to be utilized by air forces all over the world. Through multitudes of missions, the MQ-1 Predator has established itself with 900,000 flight hours clocked and a mission-capable rate of over 90 per cent, making it one of the most reliable, armed UAVs in the world today.

The evolution of these UAVs with more deadly weaponry, higher reliability and greater aerial endurance has ushered in a new age of unmanned aerial warfare and surveillance. The MQ-9 Reaper, which was developed from the MQ-1, got its name from being acknowledged as a “hunter-killer” among UAVs and squadrons around the United States like the New York Air National Guard 174th Fighter Wing have begun replacing their F-16 fighter planes with Reapers. In line with this transition, the United States Air Force has reported to be training more personnel for such UAV systems than any other weapon system in their arsenal. The Reaper has seen about 33,000 aerial missions in 2010 alone, and operational capacities of the Reaper squadrons in Iraq and Afghanistan have increased three times over since 2007. With the advances in technology, General Atomics has made the Reaper more than twice as fast as its predecessor and even more deadly, being able to carry 15 times more firepower and ordnance than the MQ-1. With its unparalleled operational success on the battlefield, many countries have begun using the Reaper as part of their aerial arsenal. Countries like Italy, Turkey and the United Kingdom have started using Reapers in surveillance, reconnaissance and strike operations all over the world.

The latest innovation in the line of Predator-class UAVs is the General Atomics Avenger, also known as the Predator C. This aircraft differs from its predecessor, the Reaper, not in weaponry and armaments but it its airborne capabilities. The Avenger has a cruise speed of over 400 knots, making it twice as fast as the Reaper and an operational ceiling higher than both the MQ-1 Predator as well as the MQ-9 Reaper. But what really differentiates the Avenger is in its stealth capability. With its turbofan jet engine, heat signature reduction designs and internal weapons storage, the Avenger is the next generation in combat UAVs. Having a much lower heat and radar signature, the craft is able to achieve feats its predecessors and competitors can only fathom. With a much lower detection rate and thus, a higher survivability rate, the Avenger is capable of achieving greater mission success. The Avenger also packs as much firepower as the Reaper and is just as combat-capable, making it an ideal choice for reconnaissance, surveillance and strike operations in the near future.

It is clear that the changes and improvements between the MQ-1 Predator, the MQ-9 Reaper and the Avenger have been largely evolutionary. However, what this paper seeks to focus on is how these UAVs have revolutionized warfare, reconnaissance and surveillance and the change from being mere reconnaissance craft to being a deadly aerial force. The Predator-class UAVs are one of the first UAVs to be fully equipped with array of armaments and they are also one of the most successful on the battlefield. Although it would be more comprehensive to include the impacts of other UAVs from companies other than General Atomics, the scope of such a discussion would be too tremendous a task as intelligence on the latest weapons are not always readily available to anyone. Thus, this scope that focuses on the three models of the Predator is a major limitation of the research in this paper.

This paper will focus on the impact of the change from being able to arm these remotely-controlled aircraft and giving them the ability to strike at the enemy while still being able to perform the original function of reconnaissance and surveillance. The paper will begin with a historical perspective of how UAVs were used since the days before World War I and evolving to the UAVs that were introduced a decade ago, namely the MQ-1 Predator and how unmanned aerial technology has changed thus far. This historical perspective will also shed light on how the earlier class of Predators have solidified UAVs as a reliable source of intelligence from the skies. Subsequently, a discussion on the present day situation and how such armed UAVs like the MQ-9 Reaper and the Avenger have changed the game and how companies are now pushing the envelope with the advances in modern aerial technology. Ending the discussions will be a projection of where these revolutionary changes will take warfare, reconnaissance and surveillance. These future considerations will also include aspects beyond just the battlefield and the feasibility and impact of such innovations in the future.

Historical Perspective

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) have been known to exist even before the time of World War I. The most primitive of UAVs came in the form of balloons and other small devices that were able to take flight. The main concept behind these devices was to carry ordnance and deposit these explosive substances over the enemy forces on the other side. The American Civil War saw such tactics but to little effect as it was ill-planned and poorly designed. As technology continued to improve, concepts like using these UAVs on the battlefield or as target drones to train the anti-air gunners became more apparent. UAVs like the OQ-2 Radioplane became the first mass-produced UAV in the United States but its uses were limited to being a target drone for training purposes. Early developments of UAVs also include “aerial torpedoes” which were used mainly in the 1930’s as remotely-controlled missiles for greater accuracy and damage potential. Although much of this technology paved the way for the modern age of more sophisticated UAVs, much of the success of unmanned aerial technology in the past was erratic and as a result, was only used to limited effect on the battlefield. The concept of using such technology for surveillance and reconnaissance had not yet been born, and the idea of UAVs with combat capabilities was still decades away.

During the 1960’s, UAVs began a whole new role in the United States’ aerial armada. From being target drones and torpedoes, UAVs slowly grew into the role we all know them for today – surveillance and reconnaissance. This transformation was evident in the early models of spy planes like the Ryan Firebee and the D-21 which were early models of spy planes fitted with cameras for remote surveillance and intelligence gathering. Their uses in the Vietnam War were regarded as “stealth surveillance”. As such technology had never been truly developed for the battlefield; this was an important step in setting the stage for future advents of UAV technology. After seeing the success of the Firebee, the Israeli Air Force began extensive development projects on their own UAVs in the 1970’s and 80’s, improving heavily on the designs and functionality of the old Firebees. From there, UAV technology has developed on a much more extensive scale, leading to more advanced camera and payload systems as well as UAVs with much higher aerial endurance and reliability.

The 1990’s saw the huge step for unmanned aerial technology, with the introduction of the famous RQ-4 Global Hawk and the RQ-1 Predator (the early unarmed variant of the MQ-1 Predator). These UAVs changed the playing field of aerial reconnaissance. With altitude ceilings of 50,000 to 65,000 feet and highly advanced surveillance systems, these UAVs were able to achieve successes their predecessors could only have dreamed of. UAVs like the Predator and Global Hawk had greater aerial endurance, speed and reliability when compared to their predecessors, and are still being used in many air forces even today. Staying longer in flight meant a greater level of intelligence and better real-time information, all leading to a more aware and well-prepared force. Having better engines and integrated electronic systems meant created a more dependable and stable aircraft which greatly increased the chances of mission successes. Coupled with extensive research and development and strong government support and funding, many of these UAV projects that seemed impossible in the past have become a mainstay in air forces all around the world.

Since the days of the American Civil War, where UAVs were basically explosive balloons, to the days of target drones and aerial torpedoes, UAV technology has indeed come a long way. Through advances in technology, UAVs have become a dependable source of real-time intelligence in any military force. Utilizing the same concept of being a spy plane, UAVs have become relatively small when compared to their fighter aircraft cousins and they are also much quieter – meaning they are harder to spot and harder to destroy. This has greatly increased their survivability in combat environments and thus, has increased their reliability as a source of real-time intelligence. The technologies embedded in their payload (camera feed) systems have been greatly improved since the days of the Firebee and are definitely clearer and more dependable in a combat situation. Aforementioned, the improvements in the aerial of endurance of UAVs like the Predator have allowed for a greater level of intelligence gathering.

From these varied and ground-breaking improvements, it is clear that the UAV has evolved and solidified its role in the realm of aerial intelligence and surveillance. This role can only be improved on further with the advent of newer, more dependable technologies that seek to push the boundaries of unmanned aerial reconnaissance. This historical perspective has presented how mere drones can evolve into a stable reconnaissance element and the subsequent section of this report will engage the present day situation of how these UAVs, primarily the Predator-class UAVS have changed warfare, reconnaissance and surveillance, moving away from just being a dependable intelligence vessel into a “hunter-killer” role on the battlefield.

Current Situation

Much of the changes related to the previous sections have been largely evolutionary. However, in the present, UAVs like the MQ-1 Predator and the MQ-9 Reaper have indeed revolutionized warfare and reconnaissance. Mentioned previously, UAVs in the early to mid-20^th century have slowly evolved into establishing themselves as reliable sources of real-time intelligence. Although the UAVs of the 21^st century have not revolutionized that aspect of intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance to a great degree, they have an added potential that is far greater – the ability to engage in combat. UAVs discussed earlier like the Global Hawk have no combat capability, making them vehicles for pure surveillance and reconnaissance. However, with the advent of technology and the introduction of armed UAVs like the MQ-1 Predator and subsequently the MQ-9 Reaper and the recent Avenger, warfare and reconnaissance has changed.

Having been developed and flown in the late 20^th century, the MQ-1 Predator was a largely successful project from General Atomics. Seeing an exceptionally high level of mission success, the Predator not only solidified its role in unmanned aerial intelligence but it also added a whole new dimension of being able to perform in strike operations. This improvement has huge implications for future unmanned technology and is also significant in present day situations in wars and global conflicts. The Predator’s successor, the MQ-9 Reaper, was even more of a success. With its greater speed, increased manoeuvrability and higher capacity for ordnance and weapons, the Reaper has earned its name through its achievements like clocking over 33,000 combat missions in Iraq and Afghanistan as well as being utilized in The Seychelles to curb the coastal piracy conflicts. The Reaper became a low-manpower high-success strike option for the United States and several allied countries and the beauty of it was that it was all remotely-controlled – allowing its pilots to sit safely behind the console.

The general idea behind unmanned aerial technology was to be able to have eyes in the sky without putting pilots and other manpower at risk. Having a much lower cost than piloted systems, UAVs were also very cost efficient. The estimated cost of a MQ-9 Reaper is $US 30million while an F-22 Raptor costs US$150 million. Although the Reaper cannot be compared to the F-22 Raptor in terms of air-to-air combat, it is still a formidable force in terms of strike capabilities and reconnaissance. The Predator-class UAV systems also required much less manpower and monitoring then piloted combat flight systems. Three operators on the ground would be enough to pilot a single Predator-class UAV as compared to an F-22 Raptor fighter aircraft which requires one pilot and roomful of intelligence operators on the ground. The most attractive aspect of having a combat UAV is that one could strike at the enemy without having one’s forces in harm’s way. Many military officials in the United States Air Force have supported the UAV initiatives heavily based on that reasoning. If militaries could use a drone and destroy a target the same way a fighter could, why not use the drone instead?

The great dilemma behind fighting a war is that soldiers will die indefinitely, based on the assumption that it is a war that is being fought and not genocide. If both sides were as well-equipped and both sides have the same military strength and intelligence, then death among the people fighting would definitely occur. But what if war could be fought safely behind the electronic console? What if a force could strike at the heart of conflict areas without the threat of being ambushed and massacred in the process? With the advances in unmanned aerial technology, these threats can be nullified. Strike operations in hostile areas could be done with a MQ-9 Reaper dropping ordnance on the target after surveying and doing the proper reconnaissance. There would be no need to risk the lives of soldiers on the ground engaging in perilous reconnaissance operations and infiltrating an environment where it is hostile and dangerous. Even if the success rates of the Reaper were to be equal to the ground strike force, it would be a wiser choice to deploy an unmanned drone to accomplish the same job and fulfil the same surveillance tasks without the risk of being seen or heard.

Aforementioned, the trick behind employing a UAV is to be unseen and unheard while knowing exactly what is happening on the ground. That gives combat UAVs like the Predator and Reaper the advantage in many combat situations – by having the element of surprise. By having a much smaller frame and a quieter engine with a relatively low heat signature, reconnaissance and surveillance without detection would definitely be a more easily accomplishable task. In addition, with the added strike capability, Predator-class UAVs would be a deadly force from the skies. Conventional aircraft can be spotted and tracked easily through the noise generated from flight and the heat signature from its jet engines, thus they are more susceptible to anti-aircraft fire and ordnance. The Predator-class UAVs, although slower, are much harder to track down and destroy. Being more “invisible” has greatly increased the Predator-class UAVs’ and other modern UAVs’ survivability. Increased survivability would equate to longer, more successful intelligence from above and thus, a greater level of support for conventional troops on the ground. And the pinnacle of such technology has become apparent in 2009 with the development and test flight of the General Atomics Avenger (Predator C) - the first stealth combat UAV to hit the skies.

The introduction of the Avenger ushers in a new age of combat UAVs to the 21^st century. The technology used in the Avenger makes it a stealth craft that continues to utilize the same functions as its predecessors. With reduced heat signature designs, internal weapons storage and a much faster turbofan jet engine, the Avenger is the pinnacle in today’s UAV technology. Although little has been announced about the incorporation of the Avenger into the United States Air Force unmanned systems, it is clear that it will be a revolutionary change in unmanned aerial technology. With the stealth and combat capabilities, the Avenger’s combat effectiveness and survivability will be exponentially improved. Having a lower heat and radar signature allows this craft to truly be “invisible” to electronic detection systems like aerial radars and heat-seeking missiles. The Avenger also plays to its strengths in being one of the fastest UAVs in the skies, matching the current fastest UAV, the Global Hawk, while still being able to pack the same amount of firepower and ordnance as the MQ-9 Reaper. Although other stealth UAVs exist with similar stealth capabilities like the Lockheed Martin RQ-170 Sentinel, nicknamed the “Beast of Kandahar”, their combat and strike capabilities are limited or mostly non-existent, making the Avenger one of the current forerunners in stealth combat UAV technology.

These stealth-enabled craft will create a world of opportunity in terms of military surveillance, reconnaissance as well as strike operations. However, it then becomes a concern if such technology gets in the hands of insurgent groups or terrorist cells. If such technology were to fall into the wrong hands, then it would serve as a catalyst for widespread panic and possibly, global conflict. The natures of these craft are to strike without resistance and as technology improves they might get even harder to track down and destroy, assuming they end up in the wrong hands. With such power, it may increase tensions between countries that have such technology and countries that do not. Much like nuclear warheads, such stealth unmanned technology can be a cause for tension especially if they are mass-deployed over countries and cities. The threat of force is all the more potent when it is neigh unstoppable and untraceable. The allure in being low-manpower intensive can also be a double-edged sword. Insurgents and terrorist cells that exist in small groups, with the right training, can operate these aircraft from remote areas and cause tremendous amounts of damage in a short span of time. For instance, flying a fighter jet to strike at civilians has a very low success rate as anti-air defences are well prepared, but flying a small craft with stealth technology to drop ordnance over populated areas has a much higher rate of success as these UAVs are much smaller and stealthier than their larger, assault counterparts. Although this may all seem far-fetched, it is certain that creating deadlier weapons is always a double-edge sword as one may never know who will be controlling these weapons in this turbulent, globalized age.

In summary, such technological advances in UAVs, with the Predator-class UAVs as a prime example of a versatile aerial scout and combatant, will lower the casualty rates in armed conflicts that require aerial forces and reconnaissance. Furthermore, with the incorporation of advanced ordnance and weapons systems, the Predator-class UAVs today have created a niche for themselves in the modern warfare arsenal – as being effective aerial scouts and also dedicated “hunter-killer” vessels. As technology progresses and research starts pushing the envelope of what is possible and what is not, it is clear that the Predator-class UAVs will continue to evolve in terms of capability and functionality but the imprint General Atomics had on combat, reconnaissance and intelligence, through the Predators, will always be left behind for others to follow. With that being said, the current level of technology today has come a long way since explosive balloons. Yet, there is still a much longer road where this technology can evolve and develop, not just on the battlefield but also in the civilian world.

Future Considerations

Although UAV intelligence systems developed in the 21^st century have advanced auto-pilot measures and basic artificial intelligence, these drones still require human supervision to operate optimally. UAVs like the MQ-9 Reaper and Avenger can execute artificial intelligence functions like auto-pilot cruising and returning to a designated launch point if left unattended. They also have functions like smart-tracking – automatically identifying potential threats on the battlefield. However, these functions only aid the human operator in making decisions and eventually, the human hand would have to be the one executing the order. In a future where purely autonomous artificial intelligence is a mainstay in everyday life, aircraft like the Avenger and Reaper can incorporate such technology. With fully-autonomous drones taking to the skies there could be a new age in military history where Man need no longer fight their own battles. It would advance to an age where robots make optimally calculated decisions in the heat of battle and execute tasks efficiently, without the occurrence of human error.

In a robotically advanced future, there would be little need for foot soldiers and pilots risking their lives to fight for causes and countries. This future world would be able to deploy artificially intelligent UAVs to engage in aerial combat, bombardments, surveillance and reconnaissance – everything a battlefield needs, all in one drone. The idea of a human soldier would then phase out to be obsolete. People are a limited resource and cannot be regenerated and replaced – they have lives, friends and family. On the other hand, using an army of deadly efficient airborne drones will mean zero casualties – just more scrap metal to be recycled and remade into more robots or metallic parts once they are destroyed. This notion will indeed change warfare as we know it and eventually phase out human-operated vessels and vehicles. Squadrons of fighter planes would be overhauled and replaced by mass-produced aerial drones that evolved from combat UAVs like the Avenger. With greater auto-targeting systems, these drones would be able to seek-and-destroy pre-programmed targets and sites. Having greater artificial intelligence systems would also negate the chances of friendly fire and ultimately, lessen human casualties. Furthermore, as these drones are fully-automated and can work in masses, they can have a much higher endurance than the human operator on the ground and no human error or fatigue.

Although these scenarios of a fully-automated UAV squadron seem ideal, there are many questions and issues regarding the programming and execution behaviours of such technology. As with all pure artificial intelligence, there arises the question of being able to make the right moral judgement that only a human can do. With emotion and empathy, comes the hesitation to take life and may even lead to a failure in mission objectives especially in combat environments where collateral damage may arise. However ironic, it is this same semi-flawed judgement that may save innocent lives. A human operator controlling a fully-armed Avenger may choose not to fire a Hellfire missile into a populated house just to kill a rebel leader because it may risk the lives of innocent inhabitants and thus, may advise a different course of action where civilian casualties are not part of the process. However, a machine can only calculate without hesitation, deducing that the rebel leader has a 100 per cent death rate if the missile is launched and that the civilians have varying chances of survival and thus, choose to fire. In this scenario, machines can actually put others at a higher risk by not adequately assessing the situation from a person’s point of view and only going for the highest chance of eliminating the threat that is the rebel leader. This is just one of the hypothetical examples of how a machine will lack the moral judgement of a human, and thus, artificial intelligence should be coupled with a human operator which ultimately executes the commands.

Aside from improvements in artificial intelligence technology, the idea of improving the firepower and combat abilities of combat UAVs like the Predator-class UAVs could revolutionize warfare in the future. Combat UAVs to date do not have the same air-to-air combat abilities as conventional jet fighters because of their speed, manoeuvrability and firepower. Currently, the Avenger is one of the fastest UAVs in the skies and if technology permits, improvements in the speed and manoeuvrability of these aircraft can be greatly improved. If research is able to develop these combat UAVs with greater aerial speeds comparable to those of a full-fledged fighter plane, then UAVs could possibly see the opportunity of replacing conventional jet fighters in the long run. Another downside of a combat UAV, even the advanced Avenger, is that it cannot engage in aerial combat on the level that a jet fighter can. Its limited manoeuvrability, coupled with the relative lack of speed, does not allow the UAV to move as fluidly or as fast a conventional fighter jet. But with improvements in aeronautical technology, the possibility of these UAVs being able to manoeuvre like jets is soon to arrive. And if combat UAVs are able to hit supersonic speeds while being able to carry the same ordnance and firepower of a fighter aircraft then a future overhaul of aerial warfare is imminent. Aforementioned, the attraction of the UAV is in that it keeps the pilots out of harm’s way and they can be produced and manned with much lower risks and costs. These future full combat-enabled UAVs can eventually take the place of jet fighters and maybe even all conventional piloted craft like transport helicopters and naval vessels.

Looking beyond battlefield and strike potential, another avenue for the future potential for such unmanned technology coupled with autonomous artificial intelligence is in homeland security. The current technology of the General Atomics Avenger boasts the ability to radio link with other Avengers within a reachable distance for the transmitted radio signals. This technology not only allows other Avengers to broadcast the same information that each Avenger is receiving but it also transmits it to the base control station, greatly increasing the surveillance coverage of an area. This airborne radio infrastructure is the future of reconnaissance and surveillance as the operators in the base control system are able to monitor a greater range of areas because of the interlinked radio feed from each Avenger within the area.

How this technology can help in homeland security would be in providing pure surveillance and real-time monitoring. As these Predator-class UAV systems require three operators on the ground and the aircraft can stay in the air for over 20 hours, it becomes very feasible to have such systems up on a constant, daily basis. With future technology, the aerial endurance and reliability of this craft will most definitely improve. Coupled with fully-automated artificial intelligence technology, these drones can function autonomously with minimal human supervision. Thus, it can create an airborne network that monitors activity on the ground. For instance, if such a system were to be implemented in a futuristic Singapore, two to three drones would be more than enough to cover the island and scout for any suspicious activities and report back to the headquarters or base control centre in an instant via radio-wave transmissions. This would not only deter crime as potential offenders would know that the “eyes in the sky” never sleep, but it would also help in alerting authorities of calamities like fires and car accidents in a timely manner. This would improve the overall safety of a country as authorities often arrive at the scene of a crime or an accident too late to do anything other than take statements and assess damages. This would allow authorities to arrive timely or even take pre-emptive measures to curb crime or save lives as they can receive information on a prompt real-time basis.

Although such future implementations may seem ideal as populations continue to move towards urban living and crime rates in urban areas are relatively higher, there is still the issue of invasion of privacy. With these “eyes in the sky” monitoring things happening on the ground, people might get threatened and intimidated because they know authorities are watching their every move. Others may feel like it is a complete violation of their personal space and privacy. Although it can be argued that the cause of having such monitoring is for the betterment of society, the potential negative social impacts are dire. If governments and authorities were to abuse such power and use this technology for activities beyond the scope that is sanctioned, then there could be a violation of rights and privacy. Imagine if authorities can track you wherever you go, know who you socialize with and even know where you like to have your morning coffee. It becomes a very totalitarian regime where the government can pry into every one’s life and monitor your every move. However, these are just potential negative projections of having such technology in place and if managed properly through the right legislations keeping such technology in check, the improvements in homeland security could outweigh the potential negative aspects.

Having an advanced radio network in the sky can also be a future pathway to global interconnectivity. With greater radio technology, these aerial drones can also serve as beacons for relaying data and information across the world. Although the internet and cell phone networks are becoming more and more advanced, this new airborne radio net can be another tool for reaching places where the internet and conventional telecommunications are unable to reach. In third world countries and more rural parts of the global where internet lines are not established and phone signal qualities are poor, these airborne radio communications can help. As the network exists from above an area, obstacles and terrain on the ground do little to affect this kind of radio signals. These drones can be beacons to amplify satellite communications or simply become a flying network of their own. This would definitely be a potential avenue for connecting countries without established internet and telecommunications infrastructure in place.

A future consideration of expanding on the potential of global surveillance and intercommunications is by using these autonomous drones, developed from current unmanned technology, to survey the land and sea – monitoring and sending data to observers in order to pre-empt potential natural disasters. On a yearly basis, earthquakes and tsunamis plague natural disaster zones all around the world and all people can do are minor predictions and subsequently, search and rescue efforts. With these aerial drones surveying the disaster-prone areas constantly, researchers can get better real-time information about the tidal, storm and tectonic movements in order to better prepare for any imminent natural disasters. This kind of information is vital in the damage-control aspects of dealing with natural disasters like hurricanes, tsunamis and earthquakes. In addition, aerial surveillance from these drones can help in a lot of calamities during the search-and-rescue phases as they can survey a large area through sophisticated cameras and scanners present in current UAV systems. This would be more efficient than sending rescue helicopters to look for stranded people or survivors at sea. Overall, this aspect of utilizing the UAVs in the future has little setbacks aside from the technological and cost constraints.

An innovation, in terms of unmanned aerial technology, to take into the future would be the development of Micro Aerial Vehicles (MAVs). The idea of having tiny flying cameras that can transmit information would be every spy’s dream. By being the size of a large bee, these MAVs can hover around sources of intelligence discreetly and unnoticed, making them ideal of espionage operations and other government-sanctioned surveillance activities. However, having such small aerial devices can also be valuable in search and rescue operations. For instance, in earthquake wreckages, collapsed buildings or wherever there are crevices too small for a human to fit through, these tiny drones can easily venture in and identify if they are survivors within the wreckage. This would definitely save a lot of time as rescue teams can quickly pinpoint the area in which survivors are trapped and attend to them immediately. Another aspect in which these MAVs can be of use is when dealing with radioactive or bio-hazardous environments. In wake of the Chernobyl disaster, many of the rescue teams developed cancer from the radiation levels within the facility. If these MAVs could be used as detectors for radiation levels and other bio-hazardous materials, it would put a lot of people out of harm’s way and potentially save many lives.

Aside from being utilized as detectors, these MAVs can be further developed into security drones. Similar to the hovering, artificially intelligent drones taken from science fiction movies, these MAVs can be the future of security. For obvious reasons, these MAVs would have to be armed with smaller ammunition like small-calibre round guns instead of the Predator-class Hellfire missiles. These armed drones would have to be about the size of a trash bin and would be able to initiate warnings to people who trespass or violate the law. For areas that require 24-hour or long periods of security detail, these drones would be ideal as they do not experience fatigue and are programmed to be ever-vigilant. Furthermore, by using these autonomous drones, technology is putting police officers and auxiliary policemen out of a job, but also out of potential danger. Such technology may be frowned upon as it takes the place of certain civil servants like policemen and thus, may be a hindering force for such technology. However, when considering large, densely-populated cities like New York and Hong Kong where the police have their hands full with crime, then having these security drones to complement the existing police force would be a rather feasible idea. The technology for small aerial drones are already in the works, however, one can only wait and see if the future of artificial intelligence technology will allow these drones to join the police force.

These are just some of the future projections and considerations for implementing such unmanned aerial technology. Although much of the ideas discussed involve fully-autonomous drones, having such utility in remotely-manned systems would also be a technological feat. Current UAV systems employ the use of a trained, human operator controlling an aerial vehicle. In the future, however, with the development of artificial intelligence technologies, we could simply do away with the human operator and simply have a fully-autonomous drone running the show. Although there are many implications to this concept as discussed earlier, this is definitely an area of technology where Man should venture into and conquer.

Conclusion

In summary, the evolutionary changes of UAVs since the American Civil War and all throughout the 20^th century have paved the way for greater achievements in this technological sphere. The MQ-1 Predator, being one of the first fully-armed UAVs to hit the skies, has changed the battlefield in terms of combat reconnaissance. Its successor, the MQ-9 Reaper, has solidified combat UAVs as an integral part of any air force and has proven itself in multitudes of combat, surveillance and armed reconnaissance operations all over the world. The latest Predator-class UAV, the General Atomics Avenger, has revolutionized not only the concept of a combat UAV, but also the future potential of stealth technology in these unmanned aircraft. All these evolutionary and revolutionary changes have a concrete impact on modern warfare and tactics. Even in the 21^st century air forces, the utilizations of UAVs have become more and more apparent, and their contributions on the battlefield in terms of real-time intelligence are unparalleled. With the added combat potential in these Predator-class UAVs by General Atomics, other developers of unmanned aerial technology have also followed suit – making combat-enabled UAVs a mainstay in the future aerial combat arsenals worldwide.

The combat potential of the Predator-class UAVs have created a niche for unmanned aircraft in the future. By utilizing and improving on such technology, these UAVs can become the future of the air force, not just in combat but also in other piloted craft. This would greatly lower casualty rates and save many lives during times of conflict and strife. In addition, future improvements in the current technologies, of advanced UAVs like the Avenger, can lead to a multitude of possibilities like the global radio network created by a network of Avenger drones. With unmanned drone technology and artificial intelligence, homeland security can also be bolstered with the aforementioned “eyes in the sky” idea. These possibilities are also endless when considering the future developments of the Micro Aerial Vehicles which can be used for discreet surveillance and internal security, given the right technology and legislation.

With regard to the scope of the research within the paper, it is clear that the limitation lies in the depth of the unmanned aerial technology industry. Therefore, when choosing a specific innovation, there had to be a limited scope. As a result, only the three major Predator-class UAVs were within the purview of the paper. In addition, it became increasingly difficult to acquire the latest information on the newest UAV projects as most of them were shrouded in secrecy in efforts to protect national interests. On hindsight, it would have been a better option to choose an innovation that does not relate to the national defence or latest weaponry of any country as up-to-date information on these projects are not always readily available.

Session 7: Devious Little Humans

Musings…

This week’s session started out on a rather jarring note. The notion that we humans are the scourge of the very planet we thrive on.  Prof showed us a cartoonish video of how humans, being the dark, grubby, pestilent beings, take over the earth and destroy everything in their path for world domination. We were even predicted to travel to other parts of the solar system and ‘infect’ those planets as well. It was all a bit shocking but on second thought, we aren’t so different from those grubby beings in the cartoon. We bring war upon each other, conquest after conquest – we not only decimate each other but also the other organisms on this planet. In such efforts and for the betterment of our lives, we plunder the earth’s resources – marauding everything we see fit, from diamonds to coal and vegetation to the ozone. We are slowly but surely destroying our own planet in an unsustainable manner. There won’t be much left. But, what we doing about it? Questions to ponder…

As the session progressed, we discussed whether the earth is able to sustain us once we start growing our own resources. This topic was interesting in the sense that it portrayed us as people who put petty differences aside in order to achieve a greater good. Not to say that war doesn’t exist now, but now, we’ve moved forward to make this earth a sustainable one for future generations. In my opinion, we have not reached the point of no return. The earth’s condition is still salvageable if we are able to channel our efforts and resources into curing global hunger, providing basic education, and delving headfirst into renewable energy. These are all steps in the effort to ‘grow’ our own resources.

Moving on from there, we went on to tackle the crisis of a rapidly growing population. Basically, focusing on the notion of bringing people from rural areas into developed cities with better sanitation, healthcare and education services. Moving away farmlands that were past down from generation to generation in hopes of creating a better life for the rural masses. But what struck me with this idea was the fact that most cities today are already overcrowded and teeming with corruption, crime and increasing poverty. Will moving these rural people from their homes into these cities be the best idea? I can see how an urban environment would be better for the future with better facilities etc. but the fact is, countries with large rural populations usually have cities that do not provide adequate, safe living environments. Largely, this dilemma stems from the instability of the government body. But I may be wrong.

Another topic of interest brought up in this session was the Green Revolution. It was amazing to me as to how developing countries were able to adapt and accept such a large scale movement and how focused the countries involved were in planning and executing this effort. I guess when it comes to the survival of their nation; the people and the government will be very proactive in ensuring it comes to fruition. But what about the survival of this planet? When will it be the time of the Energy Revolution or Earth Revolution – where countries all over the world channel their collective efforts in making green energy the energy of choice. Although much has been done in terms of harnessing renewable energy, we are still heavily dependant on fossil fuels for our industries and power. Most of the world has not tapped the potential behind renewable energy due to the high costs and their own limited capabilities. The Green Revolution, however, was so successful because everyone tried to play a role in it. If only such efforts were paid to the Energy Revolution, then we would've solved that crisis by now.

One of the best discussions we've had in sessions so far was brought up this week. We discussed whether making food available to every part of the global was going to cure the issue of world hunger. This was based on the hypothetical notion that we were able to grow enough food to supply the world with. Many interesting points were raised and I felt that having the supply was just one of the efforts in curing this global epidemic. We also have to take into account the social and political state of things. If a country is ravaged by internal strife and instability, teaching these nations to grow their own food would be tough. Furthermore, with growing poverty rates all over the world, people won’t necessarily be concerned with farming sustainable food. This was one of the more well-discussed issues in sessions so far.

Personal rating for this session:  9.177/10

Off to further musings,

James G14