Executive Summary
Among the many operational models of the modern Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), the Predator-class UAVs, by General Atomics, were chosen as the topic of this paper because of their significance and popularity as being one of the prime UAVs of the modern age. The essence of this paper will focus on the three developed models of the Predator UAVs in chronological order – namely, the MQ-1 Predator, MQ-9 Reaper and the Avenger. These models were chosen as they were identified as the plateaus in which unmanned aerial technology have peaked. Furthermore, General Atomics is known to be the major player in the field of UAVs for the United States Air Force which is currently one of the biggest users of UAVs around the world. This topical review paper will also seek to explore the innovation of the Predator-class UAVs through the history of UAVs on the battlefield since the days of World War I, where UAVs were used as experimental drones till the late 20th century where UAVs have become an integral part of warfare and reconnaissance. The paper will continue to explore the present day situation where Predator-class UAVs are used all over the globe for armed reconnaissance as well as tactical strike missions and how they have come to revolutionize warfare. In addition, a projection of where these UAVs will take warfare and reconnaissance in the future will be provided – ideas and thoughts of how this technology can be further developed to maximize the growing potential and also the potential of unmanned and artificial intelligence technologies in areas on and off the battlefield.
Introduction
The Predator-class UAVs began with the development of the General Atomics MQ-1 Predator, first developed and tested in 1994 and subsequently proven in missions over Bosnia, Kosovo, Iraq, Afghanistan and many other war-torn nations ever since its first flight. The MQ-1 was mainly used by the United States Air Force in these operations but its subsequent successors have managed to be utilized by air forces all over the world. Through multitudes of missions, the MQ-1 Predator has established itself with 900,000 flight hours clocked and a mission-capable rate of over 90 per cent, making it one of the most reliable, armed UAVs in the world today.
The evolution of these UAVs with more deadly weaponry, higher reliability and greater aerial endurance has ushered in a new age of unmanned aerial warfare and surveillance. The MQ-9 Reaper, which was developed from the MQ-1, got its name from being acknowledged as a “hunter-killer” among UAVs and squadrons around the United States like the New York Air National Guard 174th Fighter Wing have begun replacing their F-16 fighter planes with Reapers. In line with this transition, the United States Air Force has reported to be training more personnel for such UAV systems than any other weapon system in their arsenal. The Reaper has seen about 33,000 aerial missions in 2010 alone, and operational capacities of the Reaper squadrons in Iraq and Afghanistan have increased three times over since 2007. With the advances in technology, General Atomics has made the Reaper more than twice as fast as its predecessor and even more deadly, being able to carry 15 times more firepower and ordnance than the MQ-1. With its unparalleled operational success on the battlefield, many countries have begun using the Reaper as part of their aerial arsenal. Countries like Italy, Turkey and the United Kingdom have started using Reapers in surveillance, reconnaissance and strike operations all over the world.
The latest innovation in the line of Predator-class UAVs is the General Atomics Avenger, also known as the Predator C. This aircraft differs from its predecessor, the Reaper, not in weaponry and armaments but it its airborne capabilities. The Avenger has a cruise speed of over 400 knots, making it twice as fast as the Reaper and an operational ceiling higher than both the MQ-1 Predator as well as the MQ-9 Reaper. But what really differentiates the Avenger is in its stealth capability. With its turbofan jet engine, heat signature reduction designs and internal weapons storage, the Avenger is the next generation in combat UAVs. Having a much lower heat and radar signature, the craft is able to achieve feats its predecessors and competitors can only fathom. With a much lower detection rate and thus, a higher survivability rate, the Avenger is capable of achieving greater mission success. The Avenger also packs as much firepower as the Reaper and is just as combat-capable, making it an ideal choice for reconnaissance, surveillance and strike operations in the near future.
It is clear that the changes and improvements between the MQ-1 Predator, the MQ-9 Reaper and the Avenger have been largely evolutionary. However, what this paper seeks to focus on is how these UAVs have revolutionized warfare, reconnaissance and surveillance and the change from being mere reconnaissance craft to being a deadly aerial force. The Predator-class UAVs are one of the first UAVs to be fully equipped with array of armaments and they are also one of the most successful on the battlefield. Although it would be more comprehensive to include the impacts of other UAVs from companies other than General Atomics, the scope of such a discussion would be too tremendous a task as intelligence on the latest weapons are not always readily available to anyone. Thus, this scope that focuses on the three models of the Predator is a major limitation of the research in this paper.
This paper will focus on the impact of the change from being able to arm these remotely-controlled aircraft and giving them the ability to strike at the enemy while still being able to perform the original function of reconnaissance and surveillance. The paper will begin with a historical perspective of how UAVs were used since the days before World War I and evolving to the UAVs that were introduced a decade ago, namely the MQ-1 Predator and how unmanned aerial technology has changed thus far. This historical perspective will also shed light on how the earlier class of Predators have solidified UAVs as a reliable source of intelligence from the skies. Subsequently, a discussion on the present day situation and how such armed UAVs like the MQ-9 Reaper and the Avenger have changed the game and how companies are now pushing the envelope with the advances in modern aerial technology. Ending the discussions will be a projection of where these revolutionary changes will take warfare, reconnaissance and surveillance. These future considerations will also include aspects beyond just the battlefield and the feasibility and impact of such innovations in the future.
Historical Perspective
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) have been known to exist even before the time of World War I. The most primitive of UAVs came in the form of balloons and other small devices that were able to take flight. The main concept behind these devices was to carry ordnance and deposit these explosive substances over the enemy forces on the other side. The American Civil War saw such tactics but to little effect as it was ill-planned and poorly designed. As technology continued to improve, concepts like using these UAVs on the battlefield or as target drones to train the anti-air gunners became more apparent. UAVs like the OQ-2 Radioplane became the first mass-produced UAV in the United States but its uses were limited to being a target drone for training purposes. Early developments of UAVs also include “aerial torpedoes” which were used mainly in the 1930’s as remotely-controlled missiles for greater accuracy and damage potential. Although much of this technology paved the way for the modern age of more sophisticated UAVs, much of the success of unmanned aerial technology in the past was erratic and as a result, was only used to limited effect on the battlefield. The concept of using such technology for surveillance and reconnaissance had not yet been born, and the idea of UAVs with combat capabilities was still decades away.
During the 1960’s, UAVs began a whole new role in the United States’ aerial armada. From being target drones and torpedoes, UAVs slowly grew into the role we all know them for today – surveillance and reconnaissance. This transformation was evident in the early models of spy planes like the Ryan Firebee and the D-21 which were early models of spy planes fitted with cameras for remote surveillance and intelligence gathering. Their uses in the Vietnam War were regarded as “stealth surveillance”. As such technology had never been truly developed for the battlefield; this was an important step in setting the stage for future advents of UAV technology. After seeing the success of the Firebee, the Israeli Air Force began extensive development projects on their own UAVs in the 1970’s and 80’s, improving heavily on the designs and functionality of the old Firebees. From there, UAV technology has developed on a much more extensive scale, leading to more advanced camera and payload systems as well as UAVs with much higher aerial endurance and reliability.
The 1990’s saw the huge step for unmanned aerial technology, with the introduction of the famous RQ-4 Global Hawk and the RQ-1 Predator (the early unarmed variant of the MQ-1 Predator). These UAVs changed the playing field of aerial reconnaissance. With altitude ceilings of 50,000 to 65,000 feet and highly advanced surveillance systems, these UAVs were able to achieve successes their predecessors could only have dreamed of. UAVs like the Predator and Global Hawk had greater aerial endurance, speed and reliability when compared to their predecessors, and are still being used in many air forces even today. Staying longer in flight meant a greater level of intelligence and better real-time information, all leading to a more aware and well-prepared force. Having better engines and integrated electronic systems meant created a more dependable and stable aircraft which greatly increased the chances of mission successes. Coupled with extensive research and development and strong government support and funding, many of these UAV projects that seemed impossible in the past have become a mainstay in air forces all around the world.
Since the days of the American Civil War, where UAVs were basically explosive balloons, to the days of target drones and aerial torpedoes, UAV technology has indeed come a long way. Through advances in technology, UAVs have become a dependable source of real-time intelligence in any military force. Utilizing the same concept of being a spy plane, UAVs have become relatively small when compared to their fighter aircraft cousins and they are also much quieter – meaning they are harder to spot and harder to destroy. This has greatly increased their survivability in combat environments and thus, has increased their reliability as a source of real-time intelligence. The technologies embedded in their payload (camera feed) systems have been greatly improved since the days of the Firebee and are definitely clearer and more dependable in a combat situation. Aforementioned, the improvements in the aerial of endurance of UAVs like the Predator have allowed for a greater level of intelligence gathering.
From these varied and ground-breaking improvements, it is clear that the UAV has evolved and solidified its role in the realm of aerial intelligence and surveillance. This role can only be improved on further with the advent of newer, more dependable technologies that seek to push the boundaries of unmanned aerial reconnaissance. This historical perspective has presented how mere drones can evolve into a stable reconnaissance element and the subsequent section of this report will engage the present day situation of how these UAVs, primarily the Predator-class UAVS have changed warfare, reconnaissance and surveillance, moving away from just being a dependable intelligence vessel into a “hunter-killer” role on the battlefield.
Current Situation
Much of the changes related to the previous sections have been largely evolutionary. However, in the present, UAVs like the MQ-1 Predator and the MQ-9 Reaper have indeed revolutionized warfare and reconnaissance. Mentioned previously, UAVs in the early to mid-20th century have slowly evolved into establishing themselves as reliable sources of real-time intelligence. Although the UAVs of the 21st century have not revolutionized that aspect of intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance to a great degree, they have an added potential that is far greater – the ability to engage in combat. UAVs discussed earlier like the Global Hawk have no combat capability, making them vehicles for pure surveillance and reconnaissance. However, with the advent of technology and the introduction of armed UAVs like the MQ-1 Predator and subsequently the MQ-9 Reaper and the recent Avenger, warfare and reconnaissance has changed.
Having been developed and flown in the late 20th century, the MQ-1 Predator was a largely successful project from General Atomics. Seeing an exceptionally high level of mission success, the Predator not only solidified its role in unmanned aerial intelligence but it also added a whole new dimension of being able to perform in strike operations. This improvement has huge implications for future unmanned technology and is also significant in present day situations in wars and global conflicts. The Predator’s successor, the MQ-9 Reaper, was even more of a success. With its greater speed, increased manoeuvrability and higher capacity for ordnance and weapons, the Reaper has earned its name through its achievements like clocking over 33,000 combat missions in Iraq and Afghanistan as well as being utilized in The Seychelles to curb the coastal piracy conflicts. The Reaper became a low-manpower high-success strike option for the United States and several allied countries and the beauty of it was that it was all remotely-controlled – allowing its pilots to sit safely behind the console.
The general idea behind unmanned aerial technology was to be able to have eyes in the sky without putting pilots and other manpower at risk. Having a much lower cost than piloted systems, UAVs were also very cost efficient. The estimated cost of a MQ-9 Reaper is $US 30million while an F-22 Raptor costs US$150 million. Although the Reaper cannot be compared to the F-22 Raptor in terms of air-to-air combat, it is still a formidable force in terms of strike capabilities and reconnaissance. The Predator-class UAV systems also required much less manpower and monitoring then piloted combat flight systems. Three operators on the ground would be enough to pilot a single Predator-class UAV as compared to an F-22 Raptor fighter aircraft which requires one pilot and roomful of intelligence operators on the ground. The most attractive aspect of having a combat UAV is that one could strike at the enemy without having one’s forces in harm’s way. Many military officials in the United States Air Force have supported the UAV initiatives heavily based on that reasoning. If militaries could use a drone and destroy a target the same way a fighter could, why not use the drone instead?
The great dilemma behind fighting a war is that soldiers will die indefinitely, based on the assumption that it is a war that is being fought and not genocide. If both sides were as well-equipped and both sides have the same military strength and intelligence, then death among the people fighting would definitely occur. But what if war could be fought safely behind the electronic console? What if a force could strike at the heart of conflict areas without the threat of being ambushed and massacred in the process? With the advances in unmanned aerial technology, these threats can be nullified. Strike operations in hostile areas could be done with a MQ-9 Reaper dropping ordnance on the target after surveying and doing the proper reconnaissance. There would be no need to risk the lives of soldiers on the ground engaging in perilous reconnaissance operations and infiltrating an environment where it is hostile and dangerous. Even if the success rates of the Reaper were to be equal to the ground strike force, it would be a wiser choice to deploy an unmanned drone to accomplish the same job and fulfil the same surveillance tasks without the risk of being seen or heard.
Aforementioned, the trick behind employing a UAV is to be unseen and unheard while knowing exactly what is happening on the ground. That gives combat UAVs like the Predator and Reaper the advantage in many combat situations – by having the element of surprise. By having a much smaller frame and a quieter engine with a relatively low heat signature, reconnaissance and surveillance without detection would definitely be a more easily accomplishable task. In addition, with the added strike capability, Predator-class UAVs would be a deadly force from the skies. Conventional aircraft can be spotted and tracked easily through the noise generated from flight and the heat signature from its jet engines, thus they are more susceptible to anti-aircraft fire and ordnance. The Predator-class UAVs, although slower, are much harder to track down and destroy. Being more “invisible” has greatly increased the Predator-class UAVs’ and other modern UAVs’ survivability. Increased survivability would equate to longer, more successful intelligence from above and thus, a greater level of support for conventional troops on the ground. And the pinnacle of such technology has become apparent in 2009 with the development and test flight of the General Atomics Avenger (Predator C) - the first stealth combat UAV to hit the skies.
The introduction of the Avenger ushers in a new age of combat UAVs to the 21st century. The technology used in the Avenger makes it a stealth craft that continues to utilize the same functions as its predecessors. With reduced heat signature designs, internal weapons storage and a much faster turbofan jet engine, the Avenger is the pinnacle in today’s UAV technology. Although little has been announced about the incorporation of the Avenger into the United States Air Force unmanned systems, it is clear that it will be a revolutionary change in unmanned aerial technology. With the stealth and combat capabilities, the Avenger’s combat effectiveness and survivability will be exponentially improved. Having a lower heat and radar signature allows this craft to truly be “invisible” to electronic detection systems like aerial radars and heat-seeking missiles. The Avenger also plays to its strengths in being one of the fastest UAVs in the skies, matching the current fastest UAV, the Global Hawk, while still being able to pack the same amount of firepower and ordnance as the MQ-9 Reaper. Although other stealth UAVs exist with similar stealth capabilities like the Lockheed Martin RQ-170 Sentinel, nicknamed the “Beast of Kandahar”, their combat and strike capabilities are limited or mostly non-existent, making the Avenger one of the current forerunners in stealth combat UAV technology.
These stealth-enabled craft will create a world of opportunity in terms of military surveillance, reconnaissance as well as strike operations. However, it then becomes a concern if such technology gets in the hands of insurgent groups or terrorist cells. If such technology were to fall into the wrong hands, then it would serve as a catalyst for widespread panic and possibly, global conflict. The natures of these craft are to strike without resistance and as technology improves they might get even harder to track down and destroy, assuming they end up in the wrong hands. With such power, it may increase tensions between countries that have such technology and countries that do not. Much like nuclear warheads, such stealth unmanned technology can be a cause for tension especially if they are mass-deployed over countries and cities. The threat of force is all the more potent when it is neigh unstoppable and untraceable. The allure in being low-manpower intensive can also be a double-edged sword. Insurgents and terrorist cells that exist in small groups, with the right training, can operate these aircraft from remote areas and cause tremendous amounts of damage in a short span of time. For instance, flying a fighter jet to strike at civilians has a very low success rate as anti-air defences are well prepared, but flying a small craft with stealth technology to drop ordnance over populated areas has a much higher rate of success as these UAVs are much smaller and stealthier than their larger, assault counterparts. Although this may all seem far-fetched, it is certain that creating deadlier weapons is always a double-edge sword as one may never know who will be controlling these weapons in this turbulent, globalized age.
In summary, such technological advances in UAVs, with the Predator-class UAVs as a prime example of a versatile aerial scout and combatant, will lower the casualty rates in armed conflicts that require aerial forces and reconnaissance. Furthermore, with the incorporation of advanced ordnance and weapons systems, the Predator-class UAVs today have created a niche for themselves in the modern warfare arsenal – as being effective aerial scouts and also dedicated “hunter-killer” vessels. As technology progresses and research starts pushing the envelope of what is possible and what is not, it is clear that the Predator-class UAVs will continue to evolve in terms of capability and functionality but the imprint General Atomics had on combat, reconnaissance and intelligence, through the Predators, will always be left behind for others to follow. With that being said, the current level of technology today has come a long way since explosive balloons. Yet, there is still a much longer road where this technology can evolve and develop, not just on the battlefield but also in the civilian world.
Future Considerations
Although UAV intelligence systems developed in the 21st century have advanced auto-pilot measures and basic artificial intelligence, these drones still require human supervision to operate optimally. UAVs like the MQ-9 Reaper and Avenger can execute artificial intelligence functions like auto-pilot cruising and returning to a designated launch point if left unattended. They also have functions like smart-tracking – automatically identifying potential threats on the battlefield. However, these functions only aid the human operator in making decisions and eventually, the human hand would have to be the one executing the order. In a future where purely autonomous artificial intelligence is a mainstay in everyday life, aircraft like the Avenger and Reaper can incorporate such technology. With fully-autonomous drones taking to the skies there could be a new age in military history where Man need no longer fight their own battles. It would advance to an age where robots make optimally calculated decisions in the heat of battle and execute tasks efficiently, without the occurrence of human error.
In a robotically advanced future, there would be little need for foot soldiers and pilots risking their lives to fight for causes and countries. This future world would be able to deploy artificially intelligent UAVs to engage in aerial combat, bombardments, surveillance and reconnaissance – everything a battlefield needs, all in one drone. The idea of a human soldier would then phase out to be obsolete. People are a limited resource and cannot be regenerated and replaced – they have lives, friends and family. On the other hand, using an army of deadly efficient airborne drones will mean zero casualties – just more scrap metal to be recycled and remade into more robots or metallic parts once they are destroyed. This notion will indeed change warfare as we know it and eventually phase out human-operated vessels and vehicles. Squadrons of fighter planes would be overhauled and replaced by mass-produced aerial drones that evolved from combat UAVs like the Avenger. With greater auto-targeting systems, these drones would be able to seek-and-destroy pre-programmed targets and sites. Having greater artificial intelligence systems would also negate the chances of friendly fire and ultimately, lessen human casualties. Furthermore, as these drones are fully-automated and can work in masses, they can have a much higher endurance than the human operator on the ground and no human error or fatigue.
Although these scenarios of a fully-automated UAV squadron seem ideal, there are many questions and issues regarding the programming and execution behaviours of such technology. As with all pure artificial intelligence, there arises the question of being able to make the right moral judgement that only a human can do. With emotion and empathy, comes the hesitation to take life and may even lead to a failure in mission objectives especially in combat environments where collateral damage may arise. However ironic, it is this same semi-flawed judgement that may save innocent lives. A human operator controlling a fully-armed Avenger may choose not to fire a Hellfire missile into a populated house just to kill a rebel leader because it may risk the lives of innocent inhabitants and thus, may advise a different course of action where civilian casualties are not part of the process. However, a machine can only calculate without hesitation, deducing that the rebel leader has a 100 per cent death rate if the missile is launched and that the civilians have varying chances of survival and thus, choose to fire. In this scenario, machines can actually put others at a higher risk by not adequately assessing the situation from a person’s point of view and only going for the highest chance of eliminating the threat that is the rebel leader. This is just one of the hypothetical examples of how a machine will lack the moral judgement of a human, and thus, artificial intelligence should be coupled with a human operator which ultimately executes the commands.
Aside from improvements in artificial intelligence technology, the idea of improving the firepower and combat abilities of combat UAVs like the Predator-class UAVs could revolutionize warfare in the future. Combat UAVs to date do not have the same air-to-air combat abilities as conventional jet fighters because of their speed, manoeuvrability and firepower. Currently, the Avenger is one of the fastest UAVs in the skies and if technology permits, improvements in the speed and manoeuvrability of these aircraft can be greatly improved. If research is able to develop these combat UAVs with greater aerial speeds comparable to those of a full-fledged fighter plane, then UAVs could possibly see the opportunity of replacing conventional jet fighters in the long run. Another downside of a combat UAV, even the advanced Avenger, is that it cannot engage in aerial combat on the level that a jet fighter can. Its limited manoeuvrability, coupled with the relative lack of speed, does not allow the UAV to move as fluidly or as fast a conventional fighter jet. But with improvements in aeronautical technology, the possibility of these UAVs being able to manoeuvre like jets is soon to arrive. And if combat UAVs are able to hit supersonic speeds while being able to carry the same ordnance and firepower of a fighter aircraft then a future overhaul of aerial warfare is imminent. Aforementioned, the attraction of the UAV is in that it keeps the pilots out of harm’s way and they can be produced and manned with much lower risks and costs. These future full combat-enabled UAVs can eventually take the place of jet fighters and maybe even all conventional piloted craft like transport helicopters and naval vessels.
Looking beyond battlefield and strike potential, another avenue for the future potential for such unmanned technology coupled with autonomous artificial intelligence is in homeland security. The current technology of the General Atomics Avenger boasts the ability to radio link with other Avengers within a reachable distance for the transmitted radio signals. This technology not only allows other Avengers to broadcast the same information that each Avenger is receiving but it also transmits it to the base control station, greatly increasing the surveillance coverage of an area. This airborne radio infrastructure is the future of reconnaissance and surveillance as the operators in the base control system are able to monitor a greater range of areas because of the interlinked radio feed from each Avenger within the area.
How this technology can help in homeland security would be in providing pure surveillance and real-time monitoring. As these Predator-class UAV systems require three operators on the ground and the aircraft can stay in the air for over 20 hours, it becomes very feasible to have such systems up on a constant, daily basis. With future technology, the aerial endurance and reliability of this craft will most definitely improve. Coupled with fully-automated artificial intelligence technology, these drones can function autonomously with minimal human supervision. Thus, it can create an airborne network that monitors activity on the ground. For instance, if such a system were to be implemented in a futuristic Singapore, two to three drones would be more than enough to cover the island and scout for any suspicious activities and report back to the headquarters or base control centre in an instant via radio-wave transmissions. This would not only deter crime as potential offenders would know that the “eyes in the sky” never sleep, but it would also help in alerting authorities of calamities like fires and car accidents in a timely manner. This would improve the overall safety of a country as authorities often arrive at the scene of a crime or an accident too late to do anything other than take statements and assess damages. This would allow authorities to arrive timely or even take pre-emptive measures to curb crime or save lives as they can receive information on a prompt real-time basis.
Although such future implementations may seem ideal as populations continue to move towards urban living and crime rates in urban areas are relatively higher, there is still the issue of invasion of privacy. With these “eyes in the sky” monitoring things happening on the ground, people might get threatened and intimidated because they know authorities are watching their every move. Others may feel like it is a complete violation of their personal space and privacy. Although it can be argued that the cause of having such monitoring is for the betterment of society, the potential negative social impacts are dire. If governments and authorities were to abuse such power and use this technology for activities beyond the scope that is sanctioned, then there could be a violation of rights and privacy. Imagine if authorities can track you wherever you go, know who you socialize with and even know where you like to have your morning coffee. It becomes a very totalitarian regime where the government can pry into every one’s life and monitor your every move. However, these are just potential negative projections of having such technology in place and if managed properly through the right legislations keeping such technology in check, the improvements in homeland security could outweigh the potential negative aspects.
Having an advanced radio network in the sky can also be a future pathway to global interconnectivity. With greater radio technology, these aerial drones can also serve as beacons for relaying data and information across the world. Although the internet and cell phone networks are becoming more and more advanced, this new airborne radio net can be another tool for reaching places where the internet and conventional telecommunications are unable to reach. In third world countries and more rural parts of the global where internet lines are not established and phone signal qualities are poor, these airborne radio communications can help. As the network exists from above an area, obstacles and terrain on the ground do little to affect this kind of radio signals. These drones can be beacons to amplify satellite communications or simply become a flying network of their own. This would definitely be a potential avenue for connecting countries without established internet and telecommunications infrastructure in place.
A future consideration of expanding on the potential of global surveillance and intercommunications is by using these autonomous drones, developed from current unmanned technology, to survey the land and sea – monitoring and sending data to observers in order to pre-empt potential natural disasters. On a yearly basis, earthquakes and tsunamis plague natural disaster zones all around the world and all people can do are minor predictions and subsequently, search and rescue efforts. With these aerial drones surveying the disaster-prone areas constantly, researchers can get better real-time information about the tidal, storm and tectonic movements in order to better prepare for any imminent natural disasters. This kind of information is vital in the damage-control aspects of dealing with natural disasters like hurricanes, tsunamis and earthquakes. In addition, aerial surveillance from these drones can help in a lot of calamities during the search-and-rescue phases as they can survey a large area through sophisticated cameras and scanners present in current UAV systems. This would be more efficient than sending rescue helicopters to look for stranded people or survivors at sea. Overall, this aspect of utilizing the UAVs in the future has little setbacks aside from the technological and cost constraints.
An innovation, in terms of unmanned aerial technology, to take into the future would be the development of Micro Aerial Vehicles (MAVs). The idea of having tiny flying cameras that can transmit information would be every spy’s dream. By being the size of a large bee, these MAVs can hover around sources of intelligence discreetly and unnoticed, making them ideal of espionage operations and other government-sanctioned surveillance activities. However, having such small aerial devices can also be valuable in search and rescue operations. For instance, in earthquake wreckages, collapsed buildings or wherever there are crevices too small for a human to fit through, these tiny drones can easily venture in and identify if they are survivors within the wreckage. This would definitely save a lot of time as rescue teams can quickly pinpoint the area in which survivors are trapped and attend to them immediately. Another aspect in which these MAVs can be of use is when dealing with radioactive or bio-hazardous environments. In wake of the Chernobyl disaster, many of the rescue teams developed cancer from the radiation levels within the facility. If these MAVs could be used as detectors for radiation levels and other bio-hazardous materials, it would put a lot of people out of harm’s way and potentially save many lives.
Aside from being utilized as detectors, these MAVs can be further developed into security drones. Similar to the hovering, artificially intelligent drones taken from science fiction movies, these MAVs can be the future of security. For obvious reasons, these MAVs would have to be armed with smaller ammunition like small-calibre round guns instead of the Predator-class Hellfire missiles. These armed drones would have to be about the size of a trash bin and would be able to initiate warnings to people who trespass or violate the law. For areas that require 24-hour or long periods of security detail, these drones would be ideal as they do not experience fatigue and are programmed to be ever-vigilant. Furthermore, by using these autonomous drones, technology is putting police officers and auxiliary policemen out of a job, but also out of potential danger. Such technology may be frowned upon as it takes the place of certain civil servants like policemen and thus, may be a hindering force for such technology. However, when considering large, densely-populated cities like New York and Hong Kong where the police have their hands full with crime, then having these security drones to complement the existing police force would be a rather feasible idea. The technology for small aerial drones are already in the works, however, one can only wait and see if the future of artificial intelligence technology will allow these drones to join the police force.
These are just some of the future projections and considerations for implementing such unmanned aerial technology. Although much of the ideas discussed involve fully-autonomous drones, having such utility in remotely-manned systems would also be a technological feat. Current UAV systems employ the use of a trained, human operator controlling an aerial vehicle. In the future, however, with the development of artificial intelligence technologies, we could simply do away with the human operator and simply have a fully-autonomous drone running the show. Although there are many implications to this concept as discussed earlier, this is definitely an area of technology where Man should venture into and conquer.
Conclusion
In summary, the evolutionary changes of UAVs since the American Civil War and all throughout the 20th century have paved the way for greater achievements in this technological sphere. The MQ-1 Predator, being one of the first fully-armed UAVs to hit the skies, has changed the battlefield in terms of combat reconnaissance. Its successor, the MQ-9 Reaper, has solidified combat UAVs as an integral part of any air force and has proven itself in multitudes of combat, surveillance and armed reconnaissance operations all over the world. The latest Predator-class UAV, the General Atomics Avenger, has revolutionized not only the concept of a combat UAV, but also the future potential of stealth technology in these unmanned aircraft. All these evolutionary and revolutionary changes have a concrete impact on modern warfare and tactics. Even in the 21st century air forces, the utilizations of UAVs have become more and more apparent, and their contributions on the battlefield in terms of real-time intelligence are unparalleled. With the added combat potential in these Predator-class UAVs by General Atomics, other developers of unmanned aerial technology have also followed suit – making combat-enabled UAVs a mainstay in the future aerial combat arsenals worldwide.
The combat potential of the Predator-class UAVs have created a niche for unmanned aircraft in the future. By utilizing and improving on such technology, these UAVs can become the future of the air force, not just in combat but also in other piloted craft. This would greatly lower casualty rates and save many lives during times of conflict and strife. In addition, future improvements in the current technologies, of advanced UAVs like the Avenger, can lead to a multitude of possibilities like the global radio network created by a network of Avenger drones. With unmanned drone technology and artificial intelligence, homeland security can also be bolstered with the aforementioned “eyes in the sky” idea. These possibilities are also endless when considering the future developments of the Micro Aerial Vehicles which can be used for discreet surveillance and internal security, given the right technology and legislation.
With regard to the scope of the research within the paper, it is clear that the limitation lies in the depth of the unmanned aerial technology industry. Therefore, when choosing a specific innovation, there had to be a limited scope. As a result, only the three major Predator-class UAVs were within the purview of the paper. In addition, it became increasingly difficult to acquire the latest information on the newest UAV projects as most of them were shrouded in secrecy in efforts to protect national interests. On hindsight, it would have been a better option to choose an innovation that does not relate to the national defence or latest weaponry of any country as up-to-date information on these projects are not always readily available.
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